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Civilization Watch


Tough Enough To Be President?


March 01, 2012
Watching the Greek government and people over the past year or so has been amusing and appalling, both at once.

Their government is bankrupt. Their economy can't sustain their social welfare system. But when the government tries to impose austerity measures, the people take to the streets and demonstrate and riot and otherwise show their unwillingness to give up even a dime of their benefits.

Are they insane?

Well, yes, of course, but only in the way that almost all humans are insane, at least part of the time.

Who do the Greeks think will pay for their plush benefits, if they don't scale back and pay for them themselves?

They expect the European Union to pay, of course, which means Germany. Why shouldn't the Germans pay, after all? They were the ones who invaded everybody back in the 1930s and 1940s! Why should the Greeks settle for less than they're entitled to? They have rights!

Insane, yes?

So now let me ask you: When America goes bankrupt, who is going to pay for our benefits?

That's right. If you want to find a nation with a sense of entitlement every bit as insanely self-destructive as the Greeks, it's us.

We've been heading for bankruptcy for a long time. After the 1994 election, the new Republican Congress combined with a temporarily chastened Bill Clinton to cut taxes and rein in the growth of spending. The economy boomed. Revenues soared. The budget fell into balance. Problem solved!

Only instead of paying down our debt and fixing the problems that still loomed down the road, we did what insane people always do: We assumed the prosperity would last forever and we vastly overspent.

In 2009, Obama and the Democratic Congress followed the other plan – trying to spend our way out of recession. It didn't work. In fact, it made things worse.

So now, as we spin around in the fiscal commode, barely keeping our heads above water, everybody running for the Republican nomination shouts, not "Help!" but "Cut taxes!"

After all, it's worked before, right?

It worked because there was some leeway. Government could borrow to cover its expenses while waiting for the economy to bump upward and increase the revenue from a lower tax rate.

But Obama has spent our leeway. Government is already borrowed to the max. Anything we borrow now will be at a higher interest rate, plunging us deeper into debt, like people who think they can pay their American Express bill with cash advances from their Mastercard.

We've already obligated our children's children's children with our spending today; what we borrow now will bankrupt, not our children, but ourselves. We've been borrowing from our own future, and the bills are due.

What does that mean? It means that whoever is president in 2013 has to do more than follow the old formulas. Obama has already tried stimulus and it doesn't work; if he's reelected, we're flushed.

But Republicans who think they can fix everything just by lowering taxes and repealing Obamacare are wrong. The best they can do is put off the final flush.

Here's what a good president will have to do: Cut taxes and cut spending.

Great! Yes! Cut out all those needless government bureaucracies! Cut out all those programs!

Yeah, yeah, it's that kind of "thinking" that made me leave the Republican Party back in the 1970s.

You can't cut the interest we pay on our debt, except by inflating the currency, which damages everybody.

All you can cut is "discretionary spending."

What do you think that money is spent on?

It's spent on people. They go to work, they draw down their pay, they spend it. It's part of the economy.

If you cut that government spending, those people are out of work. And the government is by far our largest employer.

That means that their salaries are no longer being spent on food and gas. If they can't find jobs (and in this economy, people already can't find jobs), then their sudden unemployment shrinks the economy.

So will the boost from lower taxes be enough to goose the economy to absorb all these newly unemployed people?

It all depends on how many government jobs you cut at a time. Slash spending too fast, and unemployment soars and the economy shrinks. Counterproductive.

That's why we desperately need to have a grownup as president. We need to have someone who understands money, who can guide us through scaling back government – not radically, as the present extremist Republicans advocate, but gradually.

You know, moderately.

Oooh, I said the ugly word! Moderate! I can hear the insane right screaming, "RINO, RINO!"

That's why Republicans are so likely to nominate a non-grownup. Somebody who will merely cut taxes and not cut spending.

Why do you think Bush didn't cut spending? Because we Americans, like the Greeks, only want other people's programs to be cut – not the ones that benefit us.

For instance, there's no excuse for having a mortgage-interest income tax deduction on any house worth more than, say, $500,000 – and I'm being generous with that number.

Anybody buying a million-dollar house shouldn't get a subsidy from the government.

Quick. Which Republican is advocating a cap on the mortgage-interest deduction? None – not with any plan that will ever pass Congress. Why not? Because everyone "knows" that any cut in that deduction will eventually mean its complete elimination.

Maybe that's true; maybe not. But the fact remains that, just like the Greeks, perfectly smart people will scream, "I wanted you to cut the budget, but not by making it so I don't get my federal housing subsidy!"

There's no excuse for not taxing the Social Security income of people making more than $300,000 a year. (In fact, there's really no excuse for people in that bracket to receive Social Security at all, since we all know that it's a Ponzi scheme and not the investment plan that it pretends to be.)

But the second you try to make the slightest cut to any Social Security benefit, the AARP goes to war – just like the insane Greeks – and says, Cut somewhere else, not here!

Whatever benefits I'm receiving are a "right." It's only other people's benefits that are "excess."

Any cut in the federal budget will mean cutting the jobs of a segment of the population, throwing people out of work. Their lobby will savage any congresswight who votes for such a cut.

If somebody's treasured program is about to be slashed, the senators and representatives will be duly warned: Vote to make this cut, and we'll finance your opponent in the next election.

We are the Greeks. We are insane.

The Republicans want to elect a True Conservative.

(Never mind that only one True Conservative has ever been elected president, and even he didn't actually govern as a True Conservative – remember all that whining about "Let Reagan be Reagan"? Reagan governed as a moderate, making compromises, doing only what was possible – that's why he got reelected.)

Suppose a True Conservative wins. Then he tries to cut taxes and slash the budget.

He can probably pass the tax cut. But he'll never get a slashed budget through Congress, because We The People won't stand for it.

And even if he did, the left – which means CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN and most of the major newspapers – would smother us with stories of the poor suffering people thrown out of work, while "experts" explain that he's really destroying the economy, and very quickly he'll have as much ability to get his programs through as, say, George W. Bush in the second half of his second term.

What we need is a president who knows how to fire people. But not just any people – the right people. And not too many people, just enough people to restore the "company" to solvency while it still produces its product.

We need a president who is economically smart ... and ruthless. He has to be able to see instantly when he's gone too far, or not far enough. And he has to keep the support of Congress, which means he has to have the support of the voters.

That means the voters have to be smart enough to ignore the panicked cries of the lobbyists. The AARP, for instance, is an anti-American organization – their primary function is to bankrupt America by never allowing any reduction in Social Security benefits, period.

So the voters have to ignore them and support a president and Congress who are making responsible changes.

You see the problem? We can only get a grownup president if we vote for him. And keep supporting him after he's elected. And I see no evidence at all that we are sane enough to do that.

The miracle is that we actually have such a candidate: Mitt Romney.

Miraculously, he has survived the Republican primary process, despite all the charges that he's a secret Moderate, that he's a RINO, that the Republican "establishment" is forcing him on the people, who are really yearning for a True Conservative.

Who is this "Republican establishment"? As far as I can see, it's the group that thinks it has the right to decide who is a Republican In Name Only – the Republican establishment is Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, and they hate Romney.

Romney has taken positions I disagree with very strongly, on some issues that are very important to me.

But if America goes bankrupt, then all the other issues are moot.

If we Americans are not to end up as pathetically insane as the Greeks, demanding our "rights" as the economic commode flushes us away, Mitt Romney is the only rational choice.

Mitt Romney knows how to fire people.

Newt Gingrich lost my support the day he attacked Mitt Romney on that basis. It proved that Gingrich is either an idiot or so power-hungry he'd say anything to win. Probably both.

Mitt Romney's most important virtue is that he has stripped companies in order to save them.

Because that is exactly what the next president of the United States has to be able to do:

Strip the government of excess programs and personnel. That means firing people and eliminating services.

Anybody can cut taxes. Even Obama can cut taxes.

But cutting jobs and programs from the government so that we can live within our means – that takes guts and brains. Romney's got 'em. Nobody else even knows what they are.

Santorum? He's Al Gore with a different list of ideological commitments. He's never governed anything. He's never made a tough decision for which he would be solely responsible.

But even if the Republicans do, somehow, bring themselves to nominate the only grownup in the field, we still aren't safe.

Just look at Richard Lugar in Indiana. He's facing a serious reelection threat – because he made responsible choices and compromises in order to govern well. He acted moderately. RINO!

If Mitt Romney is elected along with a Congress full of ideological idiots of the left and the right, he'll never be able to enact a grownup program of moderate cuts.

In every state that's electing a senator and in every congressional district, we have to elect grownups to go to Washington and support, not some vast ideological reform, but a careful, moderate, nuanced adjustment to our taxing and spending, that sets us on the road to solvency with the least suffering possible.

Look at all the clowns that have been set against Romney this year. Which of them is even remotely qualified to save this company, this country, from complete bankruptcy? They're every bit as unqualified as the clown who's in the White House right now.

Romney was not my candidate. I still disagree with him on several important issues. But after getting to know all the alternatives, there's nobody else for a sane person to vote for.

What, am I saying that anybody who votes for anybody but Romney is insane?

Pretty much, yes. Insane in the way the Greeks are insane, as they reject the only policies that can save them from economic self-destruction.

And if the Republicans don't nominate Mitt Romney, and the independents and Republicans don't get behind him to elect him, and then support all his reforms, even the ones that take away some favorite benefit, then this will be marked as the election when Americans proved they weren't mature enough to govern themselves.

History is full of examples of what happens to nations that aren't capable of self-government.

I'm a Democrat. My party has already proven that it won't nominate a grownup for president – it hasn't done so from McGovern on forward.

The Republicans have nominated grownups often enough to keep the USA limping along – but the ideologues in the Republican Party usually turn on their grownup president and eat him alive.

If I change my registration from Democrat to Republican, it will not be because I have any respect for the Republican Party – I have none.

It will be so I can vote in the North Carolina primary for the only responsible candidate in the running this year.

And then some clown like Billy Yow or Rick Perry will speak up and I'll switch back. But in the meantime, against my preferences, I have no choice but to vote for Mitt Romney.

It's the responsible thing to do – for my country, for my children, for the world that depends on America, with all its flaws, to maintain any hope of peace and freedom.

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  1. print email
    As in America, so Elsewhere...
    March 01, 2012 | 09:02 AM

    Wow. As an Englishman, some of your more specifically-American references flew over my head, but most of the concepts ring resolutely true over here as well.

    Although not part of the Eurozone, we in the UK are perhaps closer to the ins, outs and ripples of the Greek crisis than you guys in the US, and it is, as you say, tragicomic. Yet you are absolutely right to say that the Greeks do not have the monopoly on this kind of self-defeating self-interest.

    Our own examples may perhaps be less stark - our government has just had to effectively back all the way down on some proposed changes to the incredibly burdensome public sector pension arrangements, for instance - but they are symptomatic of the same malaise.

    Part of the difficulty is that these benefits, or "programs" to use your terminology, are basically Pandora's boxes, however well-intentioned they may have been at the time. In the UK, every family with children receives child benefit - every single one, regardless of means. I am a lawyer, and my wife is a doctor - those professions are not as lucrative over here as they can be in the US, but, whilst we are by no means wealthy, neither are we on the breadline. Nice though it is, we do not need that money. Whilst I lack the moral backbone to donate the child benefit we receive each month to charity, I can honestly say that I would not grumble if it was taken away from me as part of a package of sensible and necessary fiscal reforms - and many of our friends feel the same (or so they say). But I bet there would still be outcry if universal child benefit widespread was scrapped. (Also, on a practical level, the savings of ending this benefit for the better off would probably be more than outweighed by the costs of bringing in and administering means testing for this benefit - glad I don't have the job of unravelling that conundrum!)

    You say "grownup" politicians, but you might just as readily have said "paternalistic" - people in power who act in our interest, because we are too blinded by ideology and more immediate forms of self-interest to see or understand what is REALLY in our interests. Unfortunately, paternalistic politics went out of fashion some time last century (in western democracies, at any rate), because we, the people, believe ourselves to be well-informed and sophisticated, and more in need of politicians who are told what to do, rather than who tell us what to do.

    Whilst there are many similarities, one big difference between our countries is the apparent vehemence of the ideologies separating left and right in the US - we are far from perfect ourselves, and I realise how condescending this will sound, but we in the UK do scratch our heads a bit when we see / read some of the reporting around American politics. Imagine that Americans are presented with two candidates, one who is demonstrably the greatest statesman, economist, tactician and diplomat the world has ever seen, but is in favour of (say) gun control, and one who has the IQ of Forrest Gump, has run scores of companies into the ground, needs help to distinguish posterior from elbow, is as offensive on foreign visits as our own Prince Philip, and has flip-flopped on every issue EXCEPT gun control (to which (s)he is vehemently opposed). It seems to us external observers that a large number of Americans would vote for the second candidate in my example. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face!

    So I hope, Mr Card, I really do, that your article is read far and wide by American voters, and that they act on it. America is so central to the global economy and politics, that you owe it to all of us to get it right!

    Al Goodwin
  2. print email
    March 01, 2012 | 09:53 AM

    Very happy for you!!!! Glad you have enlightened us with your plethora of knowledge which entails your opinion.
    A president must also be consistent, that is not Romney.
    I don't necessarily have a candidate that is perfect. That is why I would never tell anyone who they should vote for.
    I would like to know why you are not honest about your motives. An advocate for the church of latter day saints, against legalization of same sex marriage, and especially what you are best known for, SCIENCE FICTION...
    Now you can add political fiction to your resume.
    Next time you would like to give advise to the masses maybe you would like to reveal your ulterior motives. At least people will think you are sincere.


    Kenhp1
  3. print email
    March 01, 2012 | 01:00 PM

    LOL!

  4. print email
    OSC, a Republic in Democrats clothes
    March 01, 2012 | 09:47 PM

    Let's take a look at this rationally because OSC can't get past his seething hatred of Democrats.

    When Clinton left office way back in 2000, we had a budget surplus. This surplus disappeared because of several factors: Bush tax cuts, Prescription drug plan, and the Iraqi war. These events happened in relatively good times. Ideally, this would have been the time to save money and pay down the debt. However, the policies of the Republican administration prevented this.

    However, when Obama came to office in 2009, the economy was in the gutter. He did what many modern governments do in downturns, passed a stimulus package. This makes more sense as the private sector cannot create the demand that the government is able to during these major downturns. Although OSC claims that the Stimulus "made things worse" he has provided no evidence for this. It seems he took Mitt's line and spun it as his own.

    OSC is disingenuous in other areas. He states, that the only thing we can cut is "discretionary spending." Although OSC states we can't cut these programs, we can change the benefits distributed by changing the law. This will be increasing important as these programs take up an increasingly larger share of the budget as Americans get older. Indeed, OSC seems to think we can balance the budget on the backs of federal workers (yes, I realize that OSC mentions how any cut to the budget will bring out yells, but he only talks about government workers who will lose their jobs, implying they're the problem) rather than asking all American to make a small sacrifice.

    Personally, I think it's laughable that OSC thinks Romney is the only adult candidate. Out of all of the politicians, he is the one who is most likely to bend to political pressure. I.e., when he tries to make cuts, he will bow to the will of the people. Hardly a "grown-up" politician.

    Robert
  5. print email
    Say what??
    March 05, 2012 | 04:50 PM

    "Seething hatred of Democrats" seems a bit off as Mr. Card is, himeslf, a Democrat. And it would, perhaps, help the attack along a bit to expound upon these "ulterior motives" instead of ranting vaguely like a stereotypical paradoid conspiracy theorist. While I do not agree blindly with Mr. Card, I recognize well-written, well-thought-out arguments when I read them and will give them the respect they are due and evaluate them further. Rather than display an emotionally driven base desire to launch ill-formed counter-attacks to someone's opinion, why not be a 'grownup' and do a bit of one's own research? If you find errors and inaccuracies, great. Point them out and back it up with evidence. If your opinion differs, wonderful! Articulate it in a manner befitting an adult and in such a way as to promote lively debate and an intelligent conversation exploring topics which are of common interest and concern to us all, not a verbal drive-by of vitriol and nonsense. In short (yes, I know... too late!), I look forward to coming back to this editorial and reading some intelligent counters to Mr. Card's opinion. I would offer one, but I haven't done nearly enough research to have formed an opposing opinion. Rest assured, however, that does not mean I will agree by default. Something tells me Mr. Card would not approve.

  6. print email
    Mr
    March 06, 2012 | 03:29 PM

    I agree with Orson 100%.

    I was shocked when Newt Gingrich started attacking Romney for laying off people at the companies he controlled. My very first thought was how does he (Gingrich) think he is going to get government spending under control without laying off people. It was obviously just a political tactic to move Romney down in the polls but in my mind it eliminated Gingrich as a serous contender.

    I like Santorum. He has a little bit more experience than Obama had when he ran for the Presidency but not enough more to expect much better results. We need a chief executive with extensive executive experience.

    I love Ron Paul and sincerely hope that many of his ideas for shrinking the government can be enacted. I don’t think he is close enough to the mainstream to be elected and I don’t think he has the right experience or temperament for the job.

    Mitt is the only choice that can yield the desired result and that is to get the country out of the hole.

    If Obama is reelected we are “Greece”

    Stephen Golimowski
  7. print email
    No, I'm not crazy.
    March 16, 2012 | 09:37 AM

    I've admired Mr. Card's writing and at times his political commentary in the past, but by accusing everyone who will be voting against Romney, the likely GOP candidate this November, of being crazy, he has engaged in exactly the same simplistic stereotyping of half of the electorate as he has called out progressives for when done to conservatives.

    For the record, here's an endorsement of Obama's re-election by a decidedly sane former Bush supporter:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/15/andrew-sullivan-how-obama-s-long-game-will-outsmart-his-critics.html

    Incidentally, even though I'll likely ast a sober and clear-headed vote for Obama, I do respect Romney's intelligence and managerial acumen.

    -Matthew G


    M.G.
  8. print email
    March 31, 2012 | 11:50 PM

    If Romney is the Republican nominee, I see the 2008 to 2012 election cycle
    as the end of the republican party and its usurpation of the Democratic one,
    as the latter has become the Socialist party. Therefore, the election might
    very well be between a Democratic, Romney, and a Socialist, Obama. The only classical Republican will be Paul, if he runs third Party, but he really
    represents the Rep.

    I was in the Kennedy Library the other day, and again I firmly believe and know
    in my heart Kennedy was far too conservative to win the nomination of his party today. In fact, Kennedy's and Reagan's domestic and foreign policies are far, far, far more alike than Kennedy's and Obama's. Heck Reagan and Kennedy are closer than even Carter and Obama.

    I wish I could get this to OSC. I can't vote for Romney, because I know
    there's immorality in buying a company, leveraging its assets, taking 10's or
    100's of millions of dollars in fees and walking away, as the company goes
    under and folks lose their jobs and pensions. That's not capitalism, that's
    immorality. Recall that the invisible hand notion found in Adams' "Wealth of Nations" was to be tempered by the notions found in his other book -- that we've forgotten -- "On Moral Sentiments." True capitalism is a balance of self interest and moral action. Maybe the left's constant assault on morality carries some of the blame of the absence of morality on current captalist practice.

    I don't believe Romney will govern the way OSC describes. I've lived in Massachusetts twice, and a Republican here is far too liberal to be a mainstream democrat in most states of the union. I believe Romney will
    well manage the decline, but do nothing to reverse it. I think he's a Rep
    along the lines of Schwarzenegger: give the people what they want. See the East and Left coast link (MA & CA)? I think we need a president that will advocate and work to give people what they need. Romney's not that guy; Gingrich maybe; Paul definitely.

    I wish the world was a Star Trek-like utopia, we're all people worked because they love it for no pay, just the provision of basic needs. In the absence of that, and given how much I hear folks say they long for a politicain to tell them the truth, I find the lack of support for Ron Paul interesting. He certainly has put his finger on the truths/root causes.

    David Peeler
  9. print email
    RE: "Say What??"
    April 02, 2012 | 09:37 PM

    "Say What??" - If you feel that I am wrong, please provide some evidence to back up your claims.I made claims, which is that Clinton left office with a surplus. By the end of Bush's first term, that surplus was gone and we were running deficits. But why examine the facts? I suppose it's easier to ignore those facts rather and to call my arguments juvenile, rather than doing your own research.

    Besides, apparently you don't read many of OSC's columns. If you had, you'd realize that although he claims he is a Democrat, he votes Republican, supports Republicans, is conservative on many issues (vitriolically so on gay rights), and openly loathes most Democrats. If he is a Democrat, he is a Democrat in name only.

    Robert
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